Passable but Perilous: A Tanker Strike Wounds 12 as Tehran Turns on Its Own Negotiator
More oil moved through the Gulf over the past 24 hours, and the route became more dangerous for the crews moving it. A projectile struck the Panama-flagged tanker MT On Peace in the Strait of Hormuz and wounded 12 of its 19 crew, while Saudi Arabia pushed a record 5.8 million barrels per day through its East-West pipeline. Vice President Vance confirmed that talks with President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi continue but demanded deep cuts to enrichment, and a hardline MP in Tehran registered an impeachment request against Araghchi over the same channel. In Yemen, Saudi-backed forces contested the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab as the Houthis struck Saudi airports and fired on Aden. Inside Iran, the press marked the third anniversary of October 7 as the start of Israel's decline, military officials paired claims of expanded weapons output with an open doctrine of pre-emption, and Kayhan turned on Speaker Qalibaf's role as chief negotiator. We assess that costly, intermittent transit remains the most likely near-term outcome at both chokepoints, and that the threshold for an Iranian first strike is falling, although no operational sign of one is visible.