The Détente That Never Was: Iran and Saudi Arabia Return to Open Rivalry as the War Strips Away the Beijing Truce
The Beijing agreement of March 2023 gave Iran and Saudi Arabia a truce. It never gave them a reconciliation. The deal restored embassies and hotlines but left untouched the three issues that define the rivalry: Iran's network of armed allies around the kingdom, the religious contest over leadership of the Muslim world and Riyadh's security dependence on Washington. Since July the two states have moved into open hostility, fought mostly through proxies. Saudi forces joined U.S. strikes in Iraq that killed IRGC Quds Force officers, the Houthis and Iraqi militias have hit Saudi energy sites and cities, and Riyadh has built a Sunni security shield with Turkey and Pakistan. The alleged Houthi attempt on Mecca moved the contest onto religious ground, and the Iranian hardline press now treats the kingdom as a co-belligerent and Aramco as a legitimate target. We assess that any postwar thaw would be one more tactical truce, as reversible as the last. A special report for September 28, 2026.